-
Aging and Growth in Europe
Please, find enclosed RN 30th March 2018.
It is necessary to start we a premise (identical to that already underlined in the previous RN). This is only a first simple - ‘back of the envelope’ - guess of the impact of aging across Europe.
This exercise consists of three panel log-log regressions over the period 1995-2017 for 11 European nations: Belgium (BE), Denmark (DE), France (FR), Germany (GE), Greece (GR), Ireland (IR), Italy (IT), Netherland (NE), Portugal (POR), Spain (SP) and United Kingdom (UK).
In the first regression, the log of real per-capita Gdp (LNrGDPpc) is regressed on: the log of the incidence of people aged 65+ on total residents (l1.LNOver65), employment rates in the two age brackets 15-64 and over 65 years (E1564 and E65), a set of regional dummies (i.Country), and a set of yearly dummies (i.Year).
Incidence of 65+ is lagged by one period in order to smooth problems of simultaneity and endogeneity with the dependent variable. Yearly dummies are useful to control for cyclical stances influencing all EU members. Country dummies are meant to capture structural differences across EU Members that stay constant over the observation horizon.
Results are significative and with the expected signs. A 1% increase in the incidence of those aged 65+ can be associated with a 0.368% decrease in real per-capita Gdp.
The second regression is similar to the former one but, instead of the incidence of 65+, now the aging process is captured by national structural dependency ratios (l1.LNDepRatio) that represent the incidence of those aged 65+ and those aged 14- on active people (aged 15-64 years). As for the former case, structural dependency ratios are lagged by one period.
Results continue to appear significative and with the expected signs as well. A 1% increase in the structural dependency ratio can be associated with a 0.803% decrease in real per-capita Gdp.
In the third regression, aging process is captured by one-period-lagged national old structural dependency ratios (l1.LNOldDepRatio) that represent the incidence of those aged 65+ on active people (aged 15-64 years).
Results continue to come out significative and with the expected signs as well. A 1% increase in the old structural dependency ratio can be associated with a 0.376% decrease in real per-capita Gdp.
Employment rates help controlling for the capabilities of countries to contrast economic consequences of aging taking advantage of the contribution of the largest number of active citizens. Both rates (E1564 and E65) are significative in all three regressions. Taking their one-period lag would maintain the expected signs but slightly reduce statistical significance.
As for the conclusion of the previous RN dedicated to the same subject, this very rough evidence confirms the widespread idea that aging is associated with slowing down economies.
On average, in this panel of European countries:
- the share of aged over 65 increased by 28.12% from 1995 to 2017, approximately 1.28% per year, implying an annual slowing down of 0.47% in real per-capita Gdp;
- the structural dependency ratio increased by 9.68% from 1995 to 2017, approximately 0.44% per year, implying an annual slowing down of 0.35% in real per-capita Gdp;
- the old structural dependency ratio increased by 32.24% from 1995 to 2017, approximately 1.47% per year, implying an annual slowing down of 0.55% in real per-capita Gdp.
The slowing down can be seen as a guess on that part of growth that was lost (i.e. did not concretize) because of aging, that means because population composition did not remained constant but continuously evolved into an older one.
In particular the annual slowing down can be seen as a mark-down already incorporated in time series of annual growth rates.
The basic idea for this ‘back of the envelope’ computation comes from a recent NBER paper by N. Maestas, K. J. Mullen and D. Powell who constructed a complete and in-depth macro-econometric set to investigate growth-aging linkage for Us. Though obtained through a much more simplistic approach, results for Europe are, indeed, not so different from what that NBER paper finds for Us. European elasticities seem to be slightly smaller.
-
Articoli correlati
2permille, 5permille, 8permille, accumulazione, acel, acqua, acquirente unico, adapt, addetti, adeguatezza, adequacy of income, aeeg, agcm, age divide, aging, agricoltura, agsi, ai, aifa, almalaurea, ammortizzatori, ammortizzatori sociali, anac, anpal, ape, appalti, archivio, area euro, arera, arrow, arte, article iv, articolo 18, artificial intelligence, asili nido, assegno di ricollocazione, assicurazione, assistenza, aste, astrid, attivazioni & cessazioni, au, austerità, autonomia, awg, baby boomers, banca centrale, banca d'italia, basic income, basilicata, bce, behavioural economics, benchmark sanitari, benchmarking, benchmarking sanitario, benzina, berlin-washington consensus, bersani, beveridge, bicameralismo, big data, bilancio, bilateralità, biosimilari, biotecnologie, bismarck, bocconi, boeri, bonus renzi, brevetti, brevetto, brexit, bruegel, budget process, calabria, calcolo contributivo, calcolo retributivo, calderoli, camera dei deputati, campagna, campania, capitale cultura, capitale umano, carbone, casa, casa&immobili, cash, cassa integrazione, catalogna, cbo, ce, cesifo, chiesa, cig, cigo, cigs, cina, cingolani, città metropolitane, cittadinanza, clinical trials, coal, codice dei contratti, commercio, commissione cassese, commissione onofri, competitività, comuni, comunicazioni obbligatorie, concorrenza, congiuntura, consumo, contante, conti nazionali, contoannuale, contributo perequativo, convegni e dibattiti, cooperazione, copay, coronavirus, corridoi europei, corte costituzionale, corte dei conti, corte di cassazione, corte di giustizia europea, costituzione, costruzioni, covid-19, covid19, covip, crescita, crisi a confronto, crisi economica, croce, ctfs, cultura, cuneo sul lavoro, damiano, davide colombo, day hospital, dcf economics, debito, debito pubblico, decentramento, decontribuzione, decreto dignità, def, deficit, deflazione, democrazia, democrazia diretta, demografia, demography, dependency ratio, dg energy, diesel, dimensione, dipendenti pubblici, dipendenza strutturale, diritti acquisiti, diritti civili, diritti umani, diritto, diritto costituzionale, diritto ecclesiastico, diritto internazionale, disability, disegno istituzionale, disoccupazione, dispositivi medici, distribuzione del farmaco, distribuzione del reddito, disuguaglianze, divario nord-sud, documentazione, draghi, dual tax, dualismo territoriale, ecb, ecofin, economia comportamentale, economia italiana, economia&architettura, economia&diritto, economia&letteratura, economia&storia, education, efficientamento della pa, eiopa, elderly, elders, elezioni, elezioni 2022, ema, emigrazione, emilia romagna, energia, energy, eni, environment, epl, equità, equivalenti, eredità&donazioni, espanet, esrb, esspros, esternalità, etica&economia, ets, euro, eurobarometro, eurobond, europa, europe, europe-us, european commission, european fiscal board, europei, eurostat, eurozona, evasione, evidence-based-policy, fabbisogni standard, famiglie, farmacie, farmacoeconomia, farmaref, federalismo, federalismo fiscale, fesr, filosofia, financial statistics, finanza pubblica, finland, firma digitale, fis, fiscal compact, fiscal rules, fiscalità, flat tax, foi, fondazione einaudi, fondi pensione, fondi sanitari, fondi welfare, fondo di solidarietà comunale, food tax, fornero, francia, friedman, fsc, fund raising, gare, gas, gasolio, generational divide, generazioni, generici, gentile, geografia economica, geopolitica, germania, giovani, global agewatch index, globalizzazione, gme, going for growth, google trends, gran bretagna, grandi opere, grecia, greece, green pass, grexit, growth, gse, health care, households, housing, hta, human capital, ia, ilsole24ore, imf, immigrazione, impact assessment, imprese, in-kind welfare, in-silico, incentivi, incentivo maroni, india, indicizzazione, industria, inequality, inflazione, infrastrutture, innovation, innovazione, inpdap, inps, inquinamento, insegnanti, internet, invecchiamento, investimenti, ipca, iri, irpef, irpet, isee, islam, iso, istat, istituzioni, it-silc, italia-domani, iue, iva, jaspers, job act, jobs act, kant, karlsruhe, kela, keynes, la buona scuola, laffer, lagarde, lavorareinfo, lavori pubblici, lavoro, lavoro nero, law&economics, lazio, ldi, lea, legge annuale per il mercato e la concorrenza, legge bilancio, legge di bilancio, legge di stabilità, legge elettorale, lep, letteratura, liberalizzazioni, libere professioni, licenziamento collettivo, licenziamento individuale, liguria, llf, lombardia, ltc, lump of labor, m5s, mantoux, marche, marianna mazzucato, marshall, matera, mattarellum, mattei, media, mediooriente, mediterraneo, mefop, mental accounting, mercati finanziari, mercato, mercato del lavoro, meritocrazia, merkel, mes, messina, mezzogiorno, microsimulation, microsimulazione, migrazioni, mimit, mip, miscellanea, mobilità, moneta, moneta digitale, monopolio, monti, mortalità, multipilastro, multipillar, naspi, nato, nber, net pensions, net social expenditure, netflix, nexi, next generation eu, nfa, ngeu, nice, nitti, nobel, nucleare, nudging, obama, obblighi di cittadinanza, occupati, occupazione, ocse, oecd, oecd italy fiche, off-patent, oil, old age, omt, onofri, optimal taxation, optimellum, opzione donna, ordini professionali, ortodossia, osmed, osservatori inps, osservatorio adapt, outlook, output gap, pace, pagamenti elettronici, palestina, panel estimation, parafarmacie, pareggio di bilancio, parlamento, patent, patent-box, patrimonio, patto della salute, patto di stabilità, pay-as-you-go, pay-back, payback, pensionamento flessibile, pensione di cittadinanza, pensioni, pensions, pepp, perequazione, petrolio, pharmaceuticals, piani di rientro, piano juncker, piemonte, pil, pil potenziale, pisa, plastic tax, pnrr, politica, politica & storia, politica industriale, politica internazionale, politica monetaria, political economy, politiche attive del lavoro, politiche passive del lavoro, politics, ponte sullo stretto, population, pos, potenza, povertà, poverty, pressione fiscale, previdenza, previdenza complementare, prezzi, prezzo petrolio, pricing, prima guerra mondiale, primarie, primo pilastro, privatizzazioni, procurement, productivity, produttività, produzione industriale, progetto galileo, progetto mappatura ssr, programma di stabilità, programmi di stabilità, progressività, proiezioni, proiezioni di spesa, projections, propensity score matching, proprietà intellettuale, province, pubblica amministrazione, pubblico impiego, public choice, public debt, public economics, public finances, public procurement, puglia, qe, qualità della spesa, qualità delle norme, quest model, quota 100, quota 102, quota 103, r&d, r&s, ragioneria generale dello stato, react eu, recovery and resilience facility, recovery fund, reddito di cittadinanza, redistribuzione, reference pricing, referendum, reggio calabria, regioni, regions, regis, regolazione, rei, relativismo, repository, repower eu, reputation & expectations, residui fiscali, retail commerce, rete, retirement, rfl, rgs, riciclaggio, riforma amato, riforma dello stato, riforma dini, riforma fondiaria, riforma fornero, riforme strutturali, rinnovabili, ripartizione, ripresa, rischio, risparmio, rita, rlf, robotica, rosatellum, rpl, rubrica radio, russia, saldo strutturale, salute pubblica, salvaguardie, sandel, saniref, sanità, schrodinger, scienza delle finanze, scozia, scuola, scuola superiore sant'anna pisa, seconda guerra mondiale, secondo pilastro, self-defeating policy, semplificazione amministrativa, sen, senato, serie storiche, servizi, servizio universale, sespros, severance pay, sicilia, sindacati, sistema delle conferenze, sistema sanitario, sistema sociale, sistemi sanitari, sky-q, snam, social, social exclusion, social expenditure, solvency ii, sommerso&evasione, sose, sostenibilità, sovranismi, spagna, spazio, spending review, spesa farmaceutica, spesa per istruzione, spesa sanitaria, spesa sociale, spid, ssn, ssr, sssup, stacco carburante, staffetta generazionale, standard sanitari, stati uniti, statistics, statuto dei lavoratori, statuto speciale, stazioni appaltanti, stem, storia, strade, stress test, structural balance, structural reforms, sud, sugar tax, superbonus, sure, survivors, sustainability, sviluppo, svimez, tableau, tap, tar, target-2, tasi, tassazione, tasse pigouviane, tassi di interesse, tax burden, tax expenditure, tax-deferral, tax-expenditure, taxing wages, ted, telecomunicazioni, teoria economica, teorie economiche, terna, tfr, tfs, thaler, titoli sovrani, titolo v, toscana, trading deregulation, transizione digit, transizione ecologica, transizione green, transizione università-lavoro, trasporti, trattati di roma, trattato di lisbona, trentino alto adige, trickle-down, trips, trivelle, troika, trump, tunisia, tutele crescenti, ucraina, ufficio parlamentare di bilancio, uk, ula, umbria, unconventional qe, undp, unemployment, unemployment benefits, unione europea, unione fiscale, unione monetaria, universal service, universalismo, universalismo selettivo, università, upb, us, us census bureau, vaccinazione, vaccino, varie, veneto, versailles, via della seta, voto, voucher, welfare, welfare fiscale, wellbeing, wellbeing of older people, who, youngsters, zero interest rate policy